What do you think will be the next plague, and how soon before it decimates us?
Plague
Plague has several meanings. One refers specifically to bubonic plague. Another means any widespread, highly contagious disease with a high death rate, particularly, but not necessarily, when spread to man by the bite of rat fleas. These days it seems that rarely does a week go by without news of one scary disease or another, either in the wild or in friendly or bioterrorist labs. Many of these are "zoonotic" - they can spread from animals to humans. Some we thought to have contained, but are now developing resistance to our drugs.
Bubonic plague is believed to be spread by rat fleas and to have caused many historical plagues, for example the Black Death which killed tens of millions of people in Eurasia in the mid-1300s (though some believe that that was caused by a virus), at a time when the world population was less than 7% of what it is now and there were no aeroplanes to speed its spread! We do have drugs and knowledge to help us nowadays, but the disease still occurs. The symptoms include swollen glands, fever, chills, pain and extreme exhaustion.
In November 2002 a new disease appeared for the first time: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), an atypical form of pneumonia. It occurred in Guangdong Province, China, where the news was suppressed at first. This enabled it to be spread to several countries by passengers on international flights. Once the risk was discovered, strong and swift action was taken to contain the outbreak. 8,069 caught the disease and 775 died (about 10%), but it was contained and there have been no new cases since June 2003.
In contrast, anthrax has been around a long time, lingers for decades in the soil, and can be found around the world. When conditions are right it can infect animals or humans, and humans can also catch it from the animals, but not from each other. Some worry that it might be used as a biological weapon.
Smallpox was also around for a long time, for example causing 300-500 million deaths in the 20th century, with a death rate of either of 20-40% or 1% depending on the variant, but was declared eradicated in 1979. There are cultures still available in laboratories, however, and there are fears that it might be used as a biological weapon. It is very contagious, and most vaccination was discontinued in the 1970s.
Many, many deaths each year are not due to a single disease, but due to the fact that people do not have access to clean water, and if they pick up one of many water-borne diseases such as cholera, they do not have access to the remedies to cure them of those diseases. With the world's increasing population, this problem is not likely to get any better. With global warming, mosquitoes are able to spread to new ranges, bringing mosquito-borne illnesses to people who have had not had to face them before. Of course we can use pesticides like DDT against them, but those bring their own problems.
Of course, we have knowledge of how diseases spread to help us now, and we are much healthier, right? Well, some of the most populated parts of the world do not know as much as they might about how to prevent diseases spreading, or may not have adequate access to even simple things lie soap and clean water or to the means to quarantine people. Additionally, while some of us are very well fed, there are millions if not billions who are starving, and many who are elderly or disabled who probably would not have survived as long as they have if they had been living in the 1300s.
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So how about vaccination and antibiotics? It works well for some diseases, such as smallpox and polio, if we manage to vaccinate everyone. But other diseases, as described in yesterday's avian flu article, modify themselves very quickly, or become resistant like MRSA. Diseases can kill a lot of people while we are still developing and then mass producing vaccines against them. Diseases are becoming resistant to antibiotics faster than we can develop them. The current vaccine-producing system is slow and vulnerable. Research as begun on new kinds of vaccines, but it could be some time before it bears fruit.
When diseases reach populations that have never experienced them before (and have not been vaccinated), then large swathes of the population can die, as happened in the Americas when the Europeans arrived.
Each of the above diseases, their variants, and other diseases, vary in a number of ways:
Add to the above the degree of preparedness in the country or countries where the disease could arise. These days we do have the World Health Organization and national Health Departments to keep alert and take action.
This is a war against a very experienced and versatile set of opponents. A much larger war than the war on terrorism, though bioterrorists may give the enemy help. It's a war we will never win. All we can do is keep the number of casualties at a minimum. Ironically, that would be easier if we kept our own numbers down. Many are saying that it is too late to avoid another major flu pandemic - that it is literally winging its way towards us as birds migrate. But there are many other scary diseases out there.
Recent news stories involving plague include:
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Other stories
Vermonters Wonder What They Saw in Lake
There has been another sighting of "Champ", the unidentified creature believed to inhabit Lake Champlain. The two fishermen took pictures and video with a digital camera, but the results were not conclusive.
Boy Survives Bump From Killer Whale
A killer whale charged a 12-year-old boy on the shore in Alaska and bumped him, but stopped short of biting him. Experts believe it was either curious, or realised that the boy was not a seal at the last minute. No killer whale has killed a human.
U.S. Coral Reef Ecosystems in Decline
Coral reef ecosystems in U.S. waters are under threat, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report. Threats to them include global warming (rising ocean temperatures are causing coral bleaching, for example), overfishing, marine diseases, land-based pollution, storms and grounded ships. They protect shores from erosion, and provide shelter for fish. In 2002, only 41 percent of the world's coral reefs were healthy; that figure is now down to 30 percent.
Britain's Climate Blamed for Bird Changes
The State of U.K. Birds 2004 report shows that milder winters are leading birds' ranges to move eastward, as well as arriving and nesting earlier. While overall numbers of birds have risen, there has been a marked drop in birds living on farms and in rural areas. Numbers of wintering ducks, geese, swans and wading birds have also gone down. The authors that new species will start migrating to Britain as a result of climate change.
World Officials Want Global Warming Action
Environmental ministers and officials meeting at Ilulissat have called for agreement and action on global warming. Officials from Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, the EU Commission, Germany, the Faeroe Islands, Finland, France, Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, India, Indonesia, Japan, Morocco, Mexico, Norway, Russia, South Africa, Switzerland, Sweden, Tuvalu, the UK and the United States had the opportunity to see rapidly-retreating glaciers. The talks were confidential. The envoy for the United States, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, was not at the news conference at the end of the meeting.
Peasant farming recovers in S.Africa ``war zone''
Sugar cane farming on tribal lands in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province was decimated by the violence between the African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party in the 1990s, but is beginning to recover now. Some small farmers have set up a cooperative to gain access to funds, with the help of WWF International.
Sexy posters to protect Mexico's turtles
Mexican authorities are using a poster of an attractive model to persuade the locals that sea turtle eggs are not an aphrodisiac. Poachers recently killed some 80 protected Olive Ridley sea turtles. Women's rights groups are not happy with the posters, in spite of the cause.
Hawaiian Residents Debate Public Access
Every beach on Hawaii is supposed to be public, but vegetation from expensive beachfront homes has been encroaching onto the dunes, narrowing the area where people can walk. Last month a lawsuit was filed to try and sort out the mess and to define the shoreline in a way that does not encourage the practice of planting vegetation. Hawaii is not the only state where beaches are in dispute.
Newmont Wants Pollution Case Dismissed
Indonesia alleges that the world's largest gold producer, Newmont Mining Corp., has polluted a bay causing harm to fish and residents, and has charged its American director in Indonesia. The company has told the court that there is no evidence as the police study was flawed, and asked it to drop the case.
Do-It-Yourself Dairies May Lose Exemption
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is planning to end a law allowing mom-and-pop to determine the price of their own milk. Proponents of the change say that the farms which started off small and did everything from milking to delivering the milk are now factory farms, and undercutting other dairies.
'Stressed' Gator Makes Calif. Lake Home
The alligator (it's not a caiman after all) that turned up at a lake in South Los Angeles is being given a breather. The alligator wrangler who was trying to catch it has decided that the attempts were stressing it out. He'll try again in a week or so.
Teen Killed by Tiger During Photo Shoot
A teenager posing for a photo at an animal sanctuary in Kansas was killed by the Siberian tiger she was posing with.
EPA: Summer Smog Problem Easing in East
There was nearly a 50% drop in nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds emissions in 19 Eastern states between 200 and 2004, reducing ozone levels and smog.
Russian trawlers flout cod quotas in Arctic -WWF
The WWF says that Arctic cod fish stocks are being threatened by Russian trawlers in the Barents Sea which are ignoring quotas, and some from Norway too. Cod stocks in other seas have already plummeted.
Carbon Tube Sheets May Have Many Uses
Researchers have developed transparent sheets made out of tiny carbon tubes called nanotubes that are versatile and stronger than steel. One use might be as solar cells.
Researchers Creating Life From Scratch
Synthetic biologists are putting together molecules to create new living things, rather than just tweaking them like genetic engineers. Does this sound like a good idea to you?
Iran forges ahead with plutonium project - exiles
Exiles from Iran say that while the European Union is concentrating on Iran's Uranium program, Iran is working on Plutonium.
Twisters in Wis. Kill One, Injure Eight
One man was killed and eight people were injured when tornadoes struck in Stoughton in south-central Wisconsin.
Cheap Gas? Try Chicken Fat
Renewable energy companies are converting chicken fat and other animal parts and fats into oil and gas that can heat homes and fuel cars. Others are using used french-fry oil in converted diesel cars.
Index of topics in this series.
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