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Misc. Financial Topics

ICLWager Update

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#1 of 39

     Posted 3/12/05 9:21 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  All      [Msg # 28606.1 ]    
ICLWager Update


The ICLWager Portfolio fell behind the VTSMX benchmark, 11.5% to 12.9%.  These IRR values are calculated from the start date, 10/31/05.

The latest addition, TEVA, to the ICLWager Portfolio has given it a significant kick but still insufficient to overcome the lead by the broad index.  The details can be found through links from my Home Page listed below.

Lowell
 
https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#2 of 39

     Posted 3/13/05 4:12 PM   
Joe Craig
 
From  Joe Craig  Posts 340  Last 7/20/08
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.2 Message 28606.2 replying to 28606.1 28606.1 ]    
"These IRR values are calculated from the start date, 10/31/05."

I can imagine that the numbers are looking a bit funky for a few more months ...  <g>
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#3 of 39

     Posted 3/13/05 5:58 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Joe Craig      [Msg # 28606.3 Message 28606.3 replying to 28606.2 28606.2 ]    
"These IRR values are calculated from the start date, 10/31/05."

I can imagine that the numbers are looking a bit funky for a few more months ...  <g>

Opps.  That should read 10/31/2003.

L.
https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#4 of 39

     Posted 3/28/05 4:49 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  All      [Msg # 28606.4 Message 28606.4 replying to 28606.1 28606.1 ]    
We are nearly one-fourth through the evaluation time period for the ICLWager portfolio.  The good news is that the portfolio has a slight lead over its benchmark, the VTSMX index.  The disappointing news is that the portfolio is not generating an IRR of 15%.

As Thomas Dorsey implies in his Point & Figure book, we can expect our stocks to track the market within +/- 20% and that is what is happening with the ICLWager portfolio. It is going to be very difficult for the ICLWager to break away from the VTSMX over the next 3.5 years.

Lowell
 


https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#5 of 39

     Posted 4/22/05 8:00 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  All      [Msg # 28606.5 Message 28606.5 replying to 28606.4 28606.4 ]    
We are nearly 1.5 years through the ICLWager time period.  The portfolio was actually started in January of 2003 but was not fully populated until 10/31/03 so that is the starting date.

Since January of 2003 the ICLWager Portfolio is up an annualized 12.6% while the VTSMX index is up 12.7%.  This is a virtual dead heat.  Since 10/31/03 through 04/21/05 the wager portfolio is up an annualized 9.6% with VTSMX up 9.5%.  Again, it is a virtual tie in performance.

Lowell

https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#6 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 11:54 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Jim Thomas      [Msg # 28606.6 Message 28606.6 replying to 28606.5 28606.5 ]    
Jim,

Just for your information, I sold all of LNCR (270 shares) and all of RCI (450 shares) but I don't know the exact fees.  Commissions are $10.99 and fees generally run between $0.25 and $0.50 for this type of transaction.  I won't have the exact amounts for another month as Ameritrade (Portland office) does not send out confirmations as was the policy at Bidwell.

I purchased 200 shares of DHR and that commission is $10.99.  Now I'm looking for another stock to purchase as I have over $10,000 in cash available.

Lowell

https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#7 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 12:23 PM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.7 Message 28606.7 replying to 28606.6 28606.6 ]    

Lowell,

you don't have electronic access to your account?  You should know by tomorrow, at the latest, what your cash balance is if you did.

Under the guise of money-is-money, you can get Ameritrade to lower their commission.  I was all set to pull my accounts and move them to Scottrade. Scottrade had even sent Ameritrade the information on the accounts they were pulling.  An Ameritrade rep called me on the phone. When I told him I was leaving because of the commission price, he matched Scottrade's $7, permanently.

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#8 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 1:26 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Bob Mann, Administrator      [Msg # 28606.8 Message 28606.8 replying to 28606.7 28606.7 ]    

you don't have electronic access to your account?  You should know by tomorrow, at the latest, what your cash balance is if you did.


Bob,

I do have electronic access.  I'll just need to see if the fees are shown.  There is always a few cents additional cost on the sale but never on the buy.

I also added 100 shares of LOW and 300 shares of BBBY.  Both of these stocks met the wager standards.  I still have another purchase but I'll wait until a good buy shows up.  The sale of RCI will nearly permit another $10,000 to be invested in a 9th stock.  I would like to increase the diversification.


Under the guise of money-is-money, you can get Ameritrade to lower their commission.  I was all set to pull my accounts and move them to Scottrade. Scottrade had even sent Ameritrade the information on the accounts they were pulling.  An Ameritrade rep called me on the phone. When I told him I was leaving because of the commission price, he matched Scottrade's $7, permanently.


Interesting.  Are you a professional negotiator? (g)

Lowell

https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#9 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 2:55 PM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.9 Message 28606.9 replying to 28606.8 28606.8 ]    

Interesting.  Are you a professional negotiator? (g)

Far from it! In fact, I'm usually too easy.  As I get older I get wiser. Sometimes I even remember to use what I've learned.<G>

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#10 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 8:08 PM   
Jim Thomas
 
From  Jim Thomas  Posts 1762  Last Jan-21
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.10 Message 28606.10 replying to 28606.6 28606.6 ]    

Did the sales and purchase all happen today (May 5th)?

 

-Jim Thomas
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#11 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 8:11 PM   
Jim Thomas
 
From  Jim Thomas  Posts 1762  Last Jan-21
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.11 Message 28606.11 replying to 28606.6 28606.6 ]    
What was the purchase price for DHR?-Jim Thomas
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#12 of 39

     Posted 5/5/05 8:32 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Jim Thomas      [Msg # 28606.12 Message 28606.12 replying to 28606.10 28606.10 ]    
Did the sales and purchase all happen today (May 5th)?
Jim,

Yes, all transactions happened on 5/5/05.  All is updated on the bivio site except for the latest dividends.

Lowell

https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#13 of 39

     Posted 5/23/05 9:43 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  All      [Msg # 28606.13 Message 28606.13 replying to 28606.5 28606.5 ]    
The ICLWager Portfolio has taken a commanding lead over the VTSMX index.  Check it out at this site.

http://www.bivio.com/iclwc/accounting/reports/benchmark?b=10/31/2003&d=05/20/2005&s=VTSMX

I began populating this portfolio in January of 2003 so it is getting to the point where it is taking on a little bit of meaning.

I'm looking for a good stock so I can put the remaining cash into operation. 

Lowell

https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#14 of 39

     Posted 5/23/05 1:18 PM   
Nancy Isaacs
 
From  Nancy Isaacs  Posts 7112  Last Feb-6
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.14 Message 28606.14 replying to 28606.13 28606.13 ]    

Lowell,

>>I'm looking for a good stock so I can put the remaining cash into operation.  <<

Are there no new three greens in TS? 

How about sharing with us, just how you built this portfolio.  I think the plan was to populate the portfolio with three green stocks and then sell the positions when quality turns red.  I believe that you did insert some diversification considerations.  And I think I remember other times when you and Ellis decided together to overlook an occasional red... was it Fiserv?  How did you decide how many shares of each stock to purchase?  Did you ever add to existing positions?  What did you do about dividends?  Stuff like that........

 

Nancy Isaacs
BetterInvesting Community

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#15 of 39

     Posted 5/23/05 1:44 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Nancy Isaacs      [Msg # 28606.15 Message 28606.15 replying to 28606.14 28606.14 ]    

Are there no new three greens in TS? 

How about sharing with us, just how you built this portfolio.  I think the plan was to populate the portfolio with three green stocks and then sell the positions when quality turns red.  I believe that you did insert some diversification considerations.  And I think I remember other times when you and Ellis decided together to overlook an occasional red... was it Fiserv?  How did you decide how many shares of each stock to purchase?  Did you ever add to existing positions?  What did you do about dividends?  Stuff like that........


Nancy,

I did not check this morning but recently most of the "all green" stocks were those already in the portfolio.  In addition, I am reluctant to rely on the data considering all the problems with the S&P feed to OPS.  I see nothing wrong with being patient at this point.

The portfolio is built by adding "all green" stocks as determined by the original Take $tock program.  Yes, I sell when the quality ranking drops to red.  Ellis and I did make an exception with FISV when the management trend dipped approximately 1% below the accepted level.  We bent the rules of the wager as we both thought the stock was still of high quality.

I try to purchase equal dollar amounts, but as time progresses they move out of alignment as one might expect.  My preference is to invest approximately $10,000 in each new stock.  I'm not going to be able to do that with the next purchase as I don't have $10,000 in cash.

Dividends just roll into the cash account.  In an up market, cash is a drag on the portfolio but a benefit in a down market.

I would need to look over the bivio records to see if I ever added to an existing position.  I may have done so with Lowes but I'm not sure.

Lowell
https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#16 of 39

     Posted 5/23/05 1:52 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Nancy Isaacs      [Msg # 28606.16 Message 28606.16 replying to 28606.14 28606.14 ]    
Nancy et. al.,

If I had another $100,000 lying around I have another portfolio I would like to build.  It would go something like this.

1) Select only stocks found on the "Creme List."
2) The stock must be in the "Buy" price range to be considered for purchase.
3) The PnF chart must also be in the Bull mode but only if the price is ascending.  In other words, the last column may not contain O's.

4) Sell if the PnF chart turns to the Bearish phase.
5) Sell if the stock makes the "Sour List."
6) Sell if the stock drops into the bottom half of all stocks on the "Watch List."


Lowell Herr
https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#17 of 39

     Posted 5/23/05 2:31 PM   
Nancy Isaacs
 
From  Nancy Isaacs  Posts 7112  Last Feb-6
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.17 Message 28606.17 replying to 28606.15 28606.15 ]    

Thanks, Lowell.  That's just what I wanted......plain and simple <g>.

It would be interesting to hear what Ellis says about adding the cash that's lying around into existing positions.  Makes sense to me anyway. 

 

Nancy Isaacs
BetterInvesting Community


Edited 5/23/05   by  Nancy Isaacs
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#18 of 39

     Posted 5/24/05 1:24 AM   
Jim Thomas
 
From  Jim Thomas  Posts 1762  Last Jan-21
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.18 Message 28606.18 replying to 28606.13 28606.13 ]    

> The ICLWager Portfolio has taken a commanding lead over the VTSMX index. <

You can see (click here) that all of the stocks in the portfolio have moved up nicely since the beginning of May.  If you click on the individual stock charts you can see that they've all moved up (some quite nicely) in the past five days too.

 

-Jim Thomas
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#19 of 39

     Posted 5/24/05 7:12 AM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9662  Last 5:21 AM
To  Jim Thomas      [Msg # 28606.19 Message 28606.19 replying to 28606.18 28606.18 ]    
You can see (click here) that all of the stocks in the portfolio have moved up nicely since the beginning of May.  If you click on the individual stock charts you can see that they've all moved up (some quite nicely) in the past five days too.
Jim,

For some reason, the above link takes me to a dead bivio page.

Lowell
https://home.comcast.net/~lowellherr/index.html
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#20 of 39

     Posted 5/24/05 11:03 AM   
Barbara Lusk
 
From  Barbara Lusk  Posts 290  Last 11:54 AM
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 28606.20 Message 28606.20 replying to 28606.16 28606.16 ]    

Lowell,

I am curious, did you put real money into the ICL Wager portfolio?  I don't remember if you ever said you were putting real money into it or if it is a "pretend" portfolio.

Thanks,

Barbara Lusk

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Misc. Financial Topics

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