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Message Area
Stock Studies

Annual Report workshop

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#1 of 41

     Posted Oct-3 8:10 AM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  All      [Msg # 33672.1 ]    

I'm very pleased to announce that our next forum workshop will start on October 19.  It will feature Bob Adams explaining how to use his free Annual Report Excel spreadsheet!

If you find the data in the Annual Report daunting, this discussion is for you.  Only seconds are required to download data--and you're ready to analyze important ratios and other results derived from all the financial numbers.  Color coded results and verbiage help point to a conclusion.  A computerized tool (spreadsheet) is available at no cost from my website www.bob-adams.net. This tool has been updated to automatically insert required data from the Internet.  Type in a ticker symbol and the data is ready for analysis.  A number of new analysis features have been added, including a comparative analysis of peer companies and the industry, insider and institutional ownership, five year and five quarter graphs, and more.

Bob serves as a Director for InvestEd, Inc., a non-profit investor education organization; served on the BetterInvesting Computer Group Advisory Board from 1999 through 2006; has been a Director on the Board of the Puget Sound Chapter since 1994. He is retired from 26 years in radio & television broadcasting, and 13 years as a college professor. He belongs to two investment clubs, one that meets locally and an online investment club. He is the past president of his local club and advisor to the treasurer. Bob is a strong advocate of the NAIC method of investing.

So, check out the spreadsheet, formulate some questions and join us on Monday, October 19, to learn the ins-and-outs of this tool that can aid our investing decision process!

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#2 of 41

     Posted Oct-4 12:43 PM   
Nancy Isaacs
 
From  Nancy Isaacs  Posts 7112  Last Feb-6
To  Bob Mann, Administrator      [Msg # 33672.2 Message 33672.2 replying to 33672.1 33672.1 ]    
Wow!  That form has come a long way, baby...........  It has obviously been a labor of love for Bob Adams.  And it's great to see the return of workshops!  Thanks Bob & Bob.  Great choice for what will hopefully be the first of many in a new series of workshops.

 

Nancy Isaacs

Investing for Growth Forum
http://community.compuserve.com/naic

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#3 of 41

     Posted Oct-14 7:51 PM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  All      [Msg # 33672.3 Message 33672.3 replying to 33672.2 33672.2 ]    
This is just a reminder to everyone to tune-in here on Monday for the beginning of the Bob Adams workshop on using his Annual Report spreadsheet.  If you haven't already, go to his website (listed in first message in this thread), download the spreadsheet and begin playing with it.  This is a fantastic opportunity to talk to the creator of this wonderful tool!

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#4 of 41

     Posted Oct-14 8:46 PM   
danny matthews
 
From  danny matthews  Posts 570  Last Feb-4
To  Bob Mann, Administrator      [Msg # 33672.4 Message 33672.4 replying to 33672.3 33672.3 ]    
does this have a specific start time on the 19th?

Danny Matthews   

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#5 of 41

     Posted Oct-16 8:35 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.5 Message 33672.5 replying to 33672.4 33672.4 ]    

Hey, I'm a Westcoaster, so the first posting will be around 9 am my time.  For you Easterners, plan on responding with questions or comments after you have lunch. 

The regulars on this forum will know I don't spend much time on the forms, so be gentle. <g>   I'll do my best though to live up to the standards of you veterans.  (Sheeeeesh!  No spellcheck?  That ain't good.)

Bob

 

 

 

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#6 of 41

     Posted Oct-17 6:27 AM   
Nancy Crays [Administrator]
 
From  Nancy Crays [Administrator]  Posts 1020  Last Feb-1
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.6 Message 33672.6 replying to 33672.5 33672.5 ]    
Yes, there is a spell check.  It is under the message window.  Click on the attachment under my signature in this message to see the location.

Nancy C.
Seniors Community
Investing for Growth Forum


Attachments
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#7 of 41

     Posted Oct-19 12:30 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.7 Message 33672.7 replying to 33672.6 33672.6 ]    

The annual report contains many details of how the company is functioning, some of it key and some not so important.  In determining what’s important and what’s generally not, I read books by Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham--and others--with the question in mind: “What do you look at when analyzing the annual report?.”  That resulted in the suggestions below, and the spreadsheet analysis tool.  As you are probably aware, Warren Buffett considers an annual report recreational reading.  I consider it a cure for insomnia.  Therefore, we’ll hit the key points they mentioned as important then analyze the data. 

 

The annual report is a multifaceted tool.  To the company it’s largely a sales tool.  To the investor it’s a source of information about the company—and somewhat difficult to swallow as a whole.  The effort here is to bite off a bit here and there to get a feel for management and how the company is doing, then using the computer to help with looking at the numbers. 

 

Annual reports have two major sections: the glossy paper at the beginning and the cheap paper everywhere else. To their credit, companies are beginning to include a copy of the 10-K and only a few pages of the “sales pitch”—the “financial highlights” and glossy pictures.  The truly revealing information is on the mundane paper in the back and in the flimsy booklet for the annual meeting notice and proxy statement.

Buried somewhere in the Annual Report-- sometimes for good reason -- is a graph comparing the company's stock price history with that of a peer group and of the S&P 500 index. This graph can't be beat for a snapshot of a company's performance. If you look at nothing else, that’s worth the effort to find it.  If you’re reading an electronic copy, search for “S&P” to find it.

Stay away from companies with numerous pages of explanatory notes except for industries such as banking, which require many notes. The general advice from Peter Lynch is to count the pages of notes, and if too many, stay away.  As noted though, the number of notes is industry dependant.  If the number of notes pages concerns you, compare to a peer company. 

Search the report for key words such as litigation, relationships, acquisitions and joint ventures. If you find any of these topics, scrutinize them closely. Again, use the search function to find them in electronic reports.

The relationships area of the annual report discusses loans made to company officers as well as business deals in which officers in both companies are somehow related. If a search for acquisitions turns up a series of deals, be wary.  It's often difficult to grow a company through acquisitions. Improving existing products and creating new, innovative offerings -- in other words, "organic growth" -- is usually a better way to grow a company and is more predictable.

Information Not To Gloss Over
As a minimum, three areas are worth investigating. 

The Letter to Shareholders or Letter From Management

Poor management relies on alibis and excuses when talking about lackluster performance, while good management discusses problems candidly and outlines a plan to reverse negative trends.  They can’t lie, but can certainly cloud the truth if there is something to hide. 

·         Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)

MD&A covers operating trends and market factors that affect growth, profitability and debt, key concerns of the Stock Selection Guide. If management indicates a downward trend for the future, review the assumptions in your SSG analysis.  Here too, they can cloud the truth and make bad look good—or attempt to do so.  What’s your gut feeling after reading these reports?  Good or bad?
...[Message truncated]
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#8 of 41

     Posted Oct-19 12:53 PM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.8 Message 33672.8 replying to 33672.7 33672.7 ]    

Thanks Bob.  I look forward to the questions and discussion.

Do you have a feel for the competitors that company's include in their reports? Are they ones that they compete head-to-head against? Same industry but different size? Truly who they are fighting with for sales?

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#9 of 41

     Posted Oct-19 1:42 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.9 Message 33672.9 replying to 33672.8 33672.8 ]    

I've never seen a company take advantage of their being able to select the peer group used as a comparison.  That, of course, doesn't mean it hasn't been done. <G>  My experience is the peer groups chosen make sense. 

 

Bob Adams
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#10 of 41

     Posted Oct-20 12:08 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.10 Message 33672.10 replying to 33672.9 33672.9 ]    

In the post yesterday I described the 5 year return graph but wasn't able to show it.   I'll try to include it in the next post.  The companies can choose the references but usually use the S&P 500 as the general reference.  The peer group selected always seems to make sense—in terms of what I’ve observed.  Sometimes they will show more than one peer group reference.  If you’re using an electronic copy of the annual report search for S&P and save yourself some time in finding it.  If looking through the printed report, wet your finger and start thumbing through the pages.

 

The financial statements:

A stock's value comes from a company's long-term ability to create profits from invested capital. Financial statements are a snapshot of how a company creates value.

Income Statement: Indicates how good the company is at making money -- the bottom line.

 

Cash Flow Statement: Indicates how the company pays for operations and future growth.

 

Balance Sheet: Indicates what the company owns and owes.

 

A company's financial statements are analogous to your personal finances. The income statement is comparable to your paycheck stub -- a big number at the top and a smaller number at the bottom. The number at the top represents your total pay, and the number at the bottom shows what's left after taxes and expenses: health insurance, retirement, etc. A company's income statement lists similar items (expenses),, and net income represents the "little" number at the bottom of your pay stub.

The cash flow statement is similar to your checkbook. You deposit the value of your paycheck into your checking account. The company "deposits" net earnings (called operating income), along with other income -- income from investing and financing -- into its cash flow statement. The statement is similar to your checkbook balance, which represents cash on hand after expenses.

The final report is the balance sheet. Cash at the end of the month (the end of the fiscal year for a company) is transferred to the balance sheet, where it becomes part of the assets that you, or a company, own. That, minus the liabilities, represents your net worth. The same is true of a company, except a company must report its worth at the end of each fiscal year. A company's total assets and total liabilities will always balance -- the result of the item called stockholders' equity.  It represents the difference between Total Assets and Total Liabilities. 

Tomorrow we’ll begin looking at the spreadsheet with a description of a few sections, continuing that each day until complete.  I suggest you download the tool, print it, and refer to it during the remaining discussions.
...[Message truncated]
Bob Adams
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#11 of 41

     Posted Oct-20 7:12 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.11 Message 33672.11 replying to 33672.10 33672.10 ]    

Attached are two screens I wanted to show earlier but couldn't get the links to work.  

Chart 1 is an example five year comparison with the company peers and S&P 500. 

Chart 2 is the comparison of your paycheck, check book, etc., with the company Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet.

 

 

Bob Adams
Attachments
Name:   chart_1.jpgSize:   43 K
Name:   chart_2.jpgSize:   71 K
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#12 of 41

     Posted Oct-20 8:21 PM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.12 Message 33672.12 replying to 33672.11 33672.11 ]    
I've always been leery of the annual reports -- too much info and not sure where to look -- so I've rarely ventured into this area of "the other 20%" of the BetterInvesting methodology.  I think your spreadsheet will go a long way toward curing me of this trepidation.  Looking forward to tomorrow's "talk"!

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#13 of 41

     Posted Oct-20 10:45 PM   
Nancy Crays [Administrator]
 
From  Nancy Crays [Administrator]  Posts 1020  Last Feb-1
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.13 Message 33672.13 replying to 33672.11 33672.11 ]    
Bob,

Like Bob Mann, I often find annual reports intimidating.  Of course, it would be easier if I owned fewer stocks.  I should have taken some accounting classes when I was in college many decades ago!

After you look at the graph comparing the company's cumulative return versus the competitors and S&P 500, how do you use that information?

Nancy C.
Seniors Community
Investing for Growth Forum

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#14 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 9:45 AM   
Bob
 
From  Bob  Posts 5836  Last Feb-5
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.14 Message 33672.14 replying to 33672.11 33672.11 ]    

Bob,

You make a complex subject a little easier for me to understand.  Cash flow is something I have not paid enough attention to.

Short of rereading the previous annual reports, is there a way to compare cash flows.

Bob 

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#15 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 9:55 AM   
Bob Mann, Administrator
 
From  Bob Mann, Administrator  Posts 2717  Last 10:13 AM
To  Bob      [Msg # 33672.15 Message 33672.15 replying to 33672.14 33672.14 ]    

Bob,

do you mean compare cash flow between companies or compare cash flow for one company at different points of time? Or something else entirely?

Bob Mann

There is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing around in boats

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#16 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 10:07 AM   
Ira Smilovitz
 
From  Ira Smilovitz  Posts 991  Last Feb-8
To  Bob      [Msg # 33672.16 Message 33672.16 replying to 33672.14 33672.14 ]    

Short of rereading the previous annual reports, is there a way to compare cash flows.

I'm not sure what you're getting at, but any annual report will show several years' comparative data in the Statement of Cash Flows.

 

Ira Smilovitz

Join me at InvestEd 2010
Investor Education at Its BestTM

August 6-8, 2010
Baltimore, Maryland
http://www.investor-education.org

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#17 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 12:09 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  Nancy Crays [Administrator]      [Msg # 33672.17 Message 33672.17 replying to 33672.13 33672.13 ]    

Nancy...

I use the comparison graph showing the company v.s. peers and S&P as a wake up call.  There may be other companies in the industries that are better companies--or is the industry the right industry to be in?  If the company isn't at least matching its peers and industry in growth it's time to, first, find out why and, second, if I don't like the answer, find another company/industry.

 

Bob Adams
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#18 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 12:26 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  Bob Mann, Administrator      [Msg # 33672.18 Message 33672.18 replying to 33672.15 33672.15 ]    

Bob...

The comparison of cash Flow is between Free Cash Flow, Cash Flow, and Cash From Operations.  And, a comparison with Property Plant & Equipment. 

The cash items should track.  That's why graphing these items is important.  If not tracking, a comon reason is because cash is being spent on PP&E.  That's why PP&E is also graphed.  That makes it easy to answer that question.  If that isn't the answer, it's time to look at company news, etc. and find out where the cash is being spent, and is that going to grow the company.

Bob Adams
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#19 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 1:02 PM   
Bob Adams
 
From  Bob Adams  Posts 15  Last Oct-29
To  All      [Msg # 33672.19 Message 33672.19 replying to 33672.18 33672.18 ]    

We’ll spend the rest of the time during this analysis looking at each section of the spreadsheet.  Many of these data are displayed in a graphic format—both as yearly and quarterly data when appropriate—and in comparison with other data.  Explanations accompany each graph to help understand the importance of the comparison.

Below are general guidelines for the first few items.  Descriptions of more will come later.

Accounts Receivable:

If Receivables is increasing, customers aren't paying their bills.  But if Revenue is also increasing, Receivables will likely go increase--and Inventories as well.  If either goes up faster than Revenues however, that's a danger signal. All three are expected to more or less act in concert.

 

 Inventories:

The number of days waiting for customers to pay for sold merchandise, and how long inventory is sitting on the shelf unsold are an indication of customer satisfaction and good pricing.  Less than 60 days is good and less than 45 days is superb.  Look for any change in the upward direction of either or both data, indicating a problem with the product or pricing.  

 

Sales or Revenues:

Sales should grow as fast, or faster, than Accounts Receivable and Inventories.  In making this judgment the economy needs to be taken into consideration.  Sales growth is normally related to economic growth.

 

Cost of Sales:

Expect Sales to increase at or above the growth in Cost of Sales.    Also, if Property, Plant & Equipment (PP&E) is increasing Revenues should also increase.  PP&E might trail Revenues a year or two if the money is being spent on new buildings, etc.--large projects.  Allow for completion time.

 

 Plant & Equipment:

If PP&E is increasing markedly it may cause Free Cash Flow to decrease--even to the point of causing it to become negative.  The question to ask is:  What is the company spending its cash on and will that expenditure likely result in increasing market share and sales?

 

If capital is spent on upgrading equipment, factory, etc., sales should also increase.  Again, be aware there can be a lag between the expenditure and an increase in sales.  Because of that lag in time, examining this factor on a quarterly basis is not particularly meaningful.

 

Long Term Debt and Debt to Equity Ratio:

Long Term Debt should be less than 25%.  If not,
...[Message truncated]
Bob Adams
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#20 of 41

     Posted Oct-21 1:21 PM   
Nancy Crays [Administrator]
 
From  Nancy Crays [Administrator]  Posts 1020  Last Feb-1
To  Bob Adams      [Msg # 33672.20 Message 33672.20 replying to 33672.17 33672.17 ]    
Thanks, Bob.  Since Stryker was doing best in the comparisons, I didn't think about the reverse.  It does make sense to use the chart as a wake up call if the company is doing worse than its peers.

Nancy C.
Seniors Community
Investing for Growth Forum

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