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Book Discussions

The Ascent of Money

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#1 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 2:18 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9381  Last 7:59 AM
To  All      [Msg # 33769.1 ]    
Niall Ferguson has written a very interesting book titled, "The Ascent of Money."  In the Afterword, Ferguson quotes extensively from Eliezer Yudkowsky about how we are hardwired to think in certain ways, not always to our benefit.  I list those in a blog entry and as I read down through the list, while they pertain to a variety of decisions we make, they certainly apply to investing or money decisions.

Perhaps I took too much liberty in applying this list to the debate between active and passive investing, but take a look at the list of ten items for yourself.  Each of us will bring our own frame of reference thinking process to this interesting list.

The second half of #5 mystified me, when he talks about "falsifying evidence that would disprove it."  I think I know what he is trying to say, but I would have put it differently.

I liked #2 called "Hindsight bias, which causes us to attach higher probabilities to events after they have happened than we did before they happened."

Lowell Herr


http://www.lherr.org/blog/
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#2 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 3:41 PM   
Dan Hess
 
From  Dan Hess  Posts 4718  Last 9:21 AM
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 33769.2 Message 33769.2 replying to 33769.1 33769.1 ]    

I liked #2 called "Hindsight bias, which causes us to attach higher probabilities to events after they have happened than we did before they happened."

Evidence of this is the many investors who now are modifying their investment approach to protect against another 2007-2009 severe downturn. 

Dan 

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#3 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 4:13 PM   
Lowell Herr
 
From  Lowell Herr  Posts 9381  Last 7:59 AM
To  Dan Hess      [Msg # 33769.3 Message 33769.3 replying to 33769.2 33769.2 ]    
Evidence of this is the many investors who now are modifying their investment approach to protect against another 2007-2009 severe downturn. 
Dan,

What made the last bear market difficult to see, at least for me, is that we had just come through the horrendous bear market of 2000 - 2002.  I will finally learn that war does not a healthy market make.

It is interesting to see how investors are wringing the risk out of their portfolios - at least to the degree possible.

Lowell

 
http://www.lherr.org/blog/
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#4 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 6:13 PM   
Dan Hess
 
From  Dan Hess  Posts 4718  Last 9:21 AM
To  Lowell Herr      [Msg # 33769.4 Message 33769.4 replying to 33769.3 33769.3 ]    

Lowell

What made the last bear market difficult to see, at least for me, is that we had just come through the horrendous bear market of 2000 - 2002.  I will finally learn that war does not a healthy market make.

I see the main cause being the excessive spending coupled with the Fed providing excessively low interest rates for too long causing the housing bubble and then tightening to bring on the recession.  Of course the banks and congress share part of the blame as well. It will be interesting to see if Helicopter Ben learns from history.  It is clear he is now over stimulating the economy to try to avoid deflation but will he know when to stop and slow things down.  Only time will  tell.

My view on war is it is important to pick which war you are going to get into and where you will fight it.  My view is Afghanistan is not a place to fight a war because of the mountainous terrain and bad weather.  The advantages of superior power is easily overcome in such an environment.  So I have been against the war in that country but do feel there needs to be action to curtail the possibility of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction falling into the working hands.  I also do not view Pakistan as a place to fight a war. 

Bob will likely have a few comments about my views on fighting wars. (bg)

Dan  

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#5 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 6:19 PM   
Bob
 
From  Bob  Posts 5478  Last 7:25 PM
To  Dan Hess      [Msg # 33769.5 Message 33769.5 replying to 33769.4 33769.4 ]    

My view on war is it is important to pick which war you are going to get into and where you will fight it.  My view is Afghanistan is not a place to fight a war because of the mountainous terrain and bad weather.  The advantages of superior power is easily overcome in such an environment.  So I have been against the war in that country but do feel there needs to be action to curtail the possibility of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction falling into the working hands.  I also do not view Pakistan as a place to fight a war. 

Dan,

No war is good.  If you have to fight, take no prisoners.  I'd even given a non-PC thought of scortched earth.  We are the last great superpower.  We must use that carefully.  The press loses more wars than generals ever could.  Where is Patton when you need him.

Bob   

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#6 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 7:46 PM   
Dan Hess
 
From  Dan Hess  Posts 4718  Last 9:21 AM
To  Bob      [Msg # 33769.6 Message 33769.6 replying to 33769.5 33769.5 ]    

Where is Patton when you need him.

Can you imagine what the current politicians would do to Patton in today's environment.

Dan

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#7 of 7

     Posted Nov-3 8:08 PM   
Nancy Crays [Administrator]
 
From  Nancy Crays [Administrator]  Posts 836  Last 6:33 AM
To  Dan Hess      [Msg # 33769.7 Message 33769.7 replying to 33769.2 33769.2 ]    

many investors who now are modifying their investment approach to protect against another 2007


I've read or heard that many are now trying to jump on the bull bandwagon.  Day trading is on the upswing too.
Nancy C.
Seniors Community
Investing for Growth Forum

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